全球化开始开倒车

作者：英国《金融时报》专栏作家吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)
世界上本来有摇滚音乐节和图书节——后来又有了年度全球化节日，也就是著名的达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)。
在过去10年，达沃斯论坛汇聚了大企业家、金融高管和政府领袖，共同推进和庆祝全球经济一体化。无论他们有什么商业上的竞争或政治上的分歧，出席达沃斯的代表们一致认为，只有进一步推动国际贸易和投资——简而言之，就是全球化——才是实现和平与繁荣的正途。
但今年，该论坛不得不面对一种新的现象——去全球化。达沃斯人创造的世界正开始倒退。国际贸易和投资不断下滑，保护主义壁垒有所抬头。经济日渐萎缩，失业率逐步攀升。
去全球化的征兆随处可见。上周的报告显示，2008年12月份全球航空货运量较2007年同期下降22.6%。泰国总理阿披实•维乍集瓦(Abhisit Vejjajiva)在达沃斯论坛上表示，前往泰国的游客人数同比下降约20%，与国际旅游普遍下降的趋势相符（且排除了曼谷机场暂时关闭的影响）。在美国和欧洲，各国政府正忙于出手救市，纾困对象不仅仅是银行，还包括汽车制造商。但是，正如欧盟(EU)长期以来所承认的那样，为本国大型工业企业提供“国家援助”是保护主义的一种形式。
此外，还存在着“金融重商主义”，这也是今年达沃斯论坛的话题。这给银行和金融机构施加了越来越大的压力——使其收缩国际业务，专注于本土市场。当南非财政部长特雷弗•曼纽尔(Trevor Manuel)警告称，南非和其它新兴市场正面临被挤出国际资本市场、以及“脱钩、脱轨和被抛弃”的危险时，他的话道出了许多人的忧虑。
市场逻辑和政治压力助长了金融保护主义。在信贷危机中丧失了信心和资本的银行，正退回到最为熟悉的本土市场。而且，由于太多的银行得到了本国纳税人的救助，它们也无可避免地面临要在国内而非境外放贷的政治压力。
不过，在达沃斯，很少有迹象表明，全球金融危机已促使人们对作为全球化基石的假想进行了任何反思。诚然，痛斥银行家、并呼吁加强对金融体系的国际监管，已成为一种风尚。但自由市场原则和国际经济一体化的效力，在很大程度上仍未引起异议。
从某些方面而言，今年的达沃斯论坛强调了这些观念如今是多么地普遍。尽管冷战已结束了20年，但当俄罗斯总理警告人们不要“盲目相信”“支配一切的国家权力”，而中国总理透露他正重读亚当•斯密(Adam Smith)来寻找灵感时，仍令人略感惊讶。
然而，尽管支撑全球化的观点仍牢固未改，但事态正朝着相反的方向发展。达沃斯咖啡间到处散落的报纸上，不仅报道了全球贸易下滑，还谈到了法国的罢工、美国的“购买美国货”(buy America)立法、俄罗斯的社会不稳定以及英国的排外抗议工潮。达沃斯论坛上达成的“完成多哈回合”全球贸易谈判的誓约，如今被频繁地缔结和打破，以至于它们的可信度就像是每年下一次决心，去健身房减掉一大截体重那样不靠谱。
事实上，即使当政府首脑们在达沃斯重申他们的全球化承诺之时，其政府往往在却国内采取相反的举措。这种自相矛盾的最佳例证莫过于英国首相戈登•布朗(Gordon Brown)，他对于国际经济的领悟和对国际合作的热情呼吁，使他成为今年达沃斯的明星之一。
在论坛上，布朗对“去全球化”进行了严正警告，并谴责了贸易及金融保护主义。但出席达沃斯论坛的代表们公开对布朗的言行不一表示质疑——英国政府向该国接受纾困的银行施加压力，要求它们优先考虑本国客户。与此同时，在英国，满腹牢骚的工人们正在游行，高举的标语上醒目地写着布朗自己的话：“把英国的工作留给英国人。”这并不是说布朗是个伪君子，事情绝非那样简单。我们倒不如说，是他和其他领导人正被拉向两个方向。从理智上讲，他们相信有必要保持市场开放，以及贸易和投资流动。而从政治上讲，他们面临着压力，要应对不满、恐惧、要求保护的选民。
近来的情况进展表明，愤怒的公民将比抽象的理论更重要。达沃斯人正失去对事态的控制。金融危机证明，全球化所诞育的经济体系，比达沃斯与会代表们所认识到的要复杂和危险得多。各国政客和商人们无力阻止保护主义势头，看起来是达沃斯共识崩溃的下一个阶段。
眼下，观念尚未跟上现实世界的转变。在今年的全球化节日里，代表们吟唱的还是有关公开市场和国际一体化的老歌。但他们放声高歌时，不再那么有底气。而在外面更广阔的世界里，越来越多的人已不再聆听。
译者/陈云飞
未经英国《金融时报》书面许可，对于英国《金融时报》拥有版权和/或其他知识产权的任何内容，任何人不得复制、转载、摘编或在非FT中文网（或：英国《金融时报》中文网）所属的服务器上做镜像或以其他任何方式进行使用。已经英国《金融时报》授权使用作品的，应在授权范围内使用。

When globalisation goes into reverse
作者：英国《金融时报》专栏作家吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)
There are rock festivals and book festivals – and then there is the annual globalisation festival, otherwise known as the World Economic Forum in Davos.
For the past decade, the Davos meeting has brought together big business, high finance and top politics to promote and celebrate the integration of the global economy. Whatever their business rivalries or political differences, the Davos delegates all agreed that the road to peace and prosperity lay through more international trade and investment – globalisation, in short.
But this year the forum has had to confront a new phenomenon – deglobalisation. The world that Davos Man created is slipping into reverse. International trade and investment is falling and protectionist barriers are on the rise. Economies are shrinking and unemployment is growing.
The symptoms of deglobalisation are all around us. Last week, it was reported that global air cargo traffic in December 2008 was down 22.6 per cent compared with December 2007. Abhisit Vejjajiva, prime minister of Thailand, told the forum that tourist receipts in his country had fallen by about 20 per cent year-on-year, in line with the general decline in international travel (and stripping out the effects of the temporary closure of Bangkok airport). In the US and Europe, governments are scrambling to bail out not just banks but also car companies. But, as the European Union has long acknowledged, “state aid” to national industrial champions is a form of protectionism.
Then there is “financial mercantilism”, the talk of this year's Davos. This is the growing pressure on banks and financial institutions to retreat from international business and concentrate on domestic markets. Trevor Manuel, South Africa's finance minister, captured the fears of many when he warned that his country and other emerging markets were in danger of being crowded out of international capital markets and of “decoupling, derailment and abandonment”.
Financial protectionism is driven by the logic of the market and political pressure. Banks that have lost confidence and capital in the credit crunch are retreating to the home markets they know best. And because so many banks have been bailed out by national taxpayers, they are also coming under political pressure to lend at home rather than abroad.
At Davos, however, there was little sign that the global financial crisis has led to any rethinking of the assumptions underlying globalisation. True, it has become fashionable to bash bankers and to call for greater international supervision of the financial system. But the virtues of free-market principles and international economic integration remain largely unchallenged.
In some ways, this year's Davos emphasised how universal these ideas now are. Twenty years after the end of the cold war, it is still faintly astonishing to find the Russian prime minister warning against a “blind belief” in the “over-arching power of the state” and the Chinese premier letting it be known he is rereading Adam Smith in a search for inspiration.
But while the ideas that underpinned globalisation remain firmly in place, events are moving in the opposite direction. Newspapers strewn around the Davos coffee rooms told not just of a fall in global trade but of strikes in France, “buy America” legislation in the US, social unrest in Russia and anti-foreigner protests in Britain. The pledges made at Davos to “complete the Doha round” of world trade talks have now been made and broken so often, that they have the same make-believe quality as a yearly resolution to join a gym and lose a stone in weight.
In fact, even as political leaders renewed their globalisation vows in Davos, their governments were often taking contradictory steps back home. Few exemplify this contradiction better than Gordon Brown, Britain's prime minister, whose grasp of international economics and passionate calls for international co-operation made him one of this year's Davos stars.
At the forum, Mr Brown warned gravely against “deglobalisation” and denounced trade and financial protectionism. But delegates in Davos wondered aloud how this was compatible with his government's pressure on Britain's bailed-out banks to give priority to domestic customers. Meanwhile back home, disgruntled workers were on the march, carrying posters emblazoned with Mr Brown's own words: “British jobs for British workers.” It is not that Mr Brown is a hypocrite. If only it were that simple. It is rather that he and other leaders are being pulled in two directions. Intellectually, they are convinced of the need to keep markets open and trade and investment flowing. Politically, they are under pressure to respond to voters who are angry, frightened and demanding protection.
Recent developments suggest that angry citizens will take priority over abstract ideas. Davos Man is losing control of events. The financial crisis demonstrated that globalisation had created an economic system more complex and more dangerous than the delegates gathered in Davos had ever realised. The inability of international politicians and businessmen to stop the drift towards protectionism looks like the next stage in the demolition of the Davos consensus.
For the moment, ideas have not caught up with the shift in the real world. At this year's globalisation festival, delegates sang the old songs about open markets and international integration. But they were no longer belted out with much conviction. Out in the wider world, more and more people are no longer listening.
未经英国《金融时报》书面许可，对于英国《金融时报》拥有版权和/或其他知识产权的任何内容，任何人不得复制、转载、摘编或在非FT中文网（或：英国《金融时报》中文网）所属的服务器上做镜像或以其他任何方式进行使用。已经英国《金融时报》授权使用作品的，应在授权范围内使用。