DOLLAR'S FALL REFLECTS LOSS OF HAVEN APPEAL

By Peter Garnham
Increasing confidence that the world might be past the worst of its economic and financial woes has been good for many assets in recent weeks – equities, corporate bonds, and commodities – but it has certainly not favoured one asset, namely, the dollar.
The US currency has fallen 10 per cent since it hit a three-year high on a trade-weighted basis in March. This week it reached its lowest point against a basket of currencies since December.
Some pundits expect the dollar's woes to continue.
“We long warned about the day of reckoning for the dollar emerging at the next economic recovery,” says Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets. He says real demand for commodities combined with improved risk appetite will push investors to seek yield in emerging markets and commodity currencies, away from the fiscal deficiencies of the US economy.
The dollar rallied strongly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September as massive deleveraging sent investors scrambling for the safety of the currency and US assets.
The main casualties were emerging market and commodity linked currencies as investors braced themselves for a collapse in the global economy.
But signs of stabilisation, combined with rallying equities and reduced volatility, have soothed investors' nerves.
That has removed some of the dollar's haven support, prompting fears that just as the dollar benefited when investors scrambled out of risky positions, so it will suffer as they seek out yield. The dollar has fallen nearly 10 per cent against the euro, dropped 8.8 per cent against the pound and lost 3 per cent against the yen since March.
Emerging market and commodity-linked currencies have rallied even more against the dollar over that period, with the Australian dollar up 20 per cent, the Brazilian real 15 per cent stronger and the South African rand up 16 per cent.
John Normand, at JPMorgan, believes that the global economy has turned the corner. “The dollar will be the main casualty, since US growth will come with lower interest rates, higher inflation expectations and greater financing risk than most other economies,” he says.
He adds that investors risk repeating a frequent mistake: underestimating growth at turning points.
“Given the amount of money stockpiled in cash after the Lehman bankruptcy and still undeployed after this spring's equity market rally, any upside surprise would renew the dollar's downtrend,” says Mr Normand. JPMorgan puts this stockpile at about $700bn.
“Even if the recovery proves mediocre, these cash levels look inordinate,” says Mr Normand. “The upside on risky markets and the downside on the dollar from reallocation still look decent, even after the moves of the past two months.”
There are increasing signs that the tight correlation between equities and the dollar is breaking down.
In recent months, the dollar has benefited when risk averse investors fled falling stock markets, but it has fallen at times of higher risk appetite and rallying stocks.
This week the dollar and equities have fallen after the Federal Reserve revised down its growth outlook and increased its unemployment projections.
“The fact that weakness in US stocks failed to help the dollar in terms of a risk aversion bid reveals that dollar bearishness is becoming more entrenched,” says Mitul Kotecha at Calyon.
He expects investors to focus on other negatives for the dollar, including worries over the US fiscal position and the effects of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programme.
Analysts say worries over the US fiscal position are only likely to be heightened by the downgrade yesterday from S&P, the rating agency, to its outlook on UK sovereign debt.
Chris Turner, at ING Capital, says the US went into the financial crisis with a worse debt to gross domestic product ratio than the UK – 63 per cent against 44 per cent – and most organisations, including the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, expect the US ratio to hit 100 per cent before the UK.
“The market is right to ask whether a US ratings outlook change could occur shortly – which would be very bad news for the dollar,” says Mr Turner.
Derek Halpenny, at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubshi UFJ, says the impact of US monetary policy on inflation expectations will dictate the performance of the dollar.
He says longer-term inflation expectations may creep higher over the coming months if the Fed increases the scale of asset purchases in its QE programme in an attempt to boost the domestic economy.
“The danger may well be that financial market participants speculate that US policymakers are engineering a weaker dollar as part of the overall plan to fight deflation,” he says.
That would ring alarm bells among the holders of the world's main foreign exchanges reserves, the vast majority of which are held in dollars.
China, the world's largest reserve holder, has repeatedly voiced its concerns over the value of the dollar and, along with Russia, the world's third largest reserve holder, has urged a move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Such a move is unthinkable in all but the very long term. But this highly-sensitive issue might chip away at the dollar, as witnessed by the attention given to reports this week that trade between Brazil and China might soon be transacted in real and renminbi.
An official from the China banking regulatory commission suggested this week that the renminbi could become a bigger reserve currency, accounting for 3 per cent of global reserves by 2020.
“This process will be very slow, especially as the renminbi is not fully convertible,” says Steve Barrow at Standard Bank.
“But it is clearly an issue that could slowly eat away at the dollar, given that the US currency would seem to have most to lose as the renminbi's global role increases.”
未经英国《金融时报》书面许可，对于英国《金融时报》拥有版权和/或其他知识产权的任何内容，任何人不得复制、转载、摘编或在非FT中文网（或：英国《金融时报》中文网）所属的服务器上做镜像或以其他任何方式进行使用。已经英国《金融时报》授权使用作品的，应在授权范围内使用。
美元不再是避风港
作者：英国《金融时报》彼得•加海姆(Peter Garnham)(Peter Garnham)
世界可能已经渡过了经济与金融灾难的最坏阶段，这种信心不断提升，已在最近几周对诸多资产——股市、公司债券和大宗商品——形成利好，但有一种资产显然未能从中受益，那就是美元。
美元的贸易加权汇率自今年3月触及3年高点之后，已回落了10%。本周，美元相对于一揽子货币跌至自去年12月以来的最低点。
一些权威人士预期美元颓势还将继续。
“我们一直警告说，对美元进行清算的日子，将会在下一次经济复苏中出现，”CMC Markets的阿什拉夫•拉伊迪(Ashraf Laidi)说。他表示，大宗商品的真实需求与风险偏好的增加相结合，将推动投资者在新兴市场和商品货币中寻求收益，避开美国经济的财政赤字。
去年9月雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产后，大量去杠杆化行为导致投资者疯狂攫取安全的货币和美国资产，拉动了美元强劲回升。
随着投资者已准备好面对全球经济崩溃，受损大的是与新兴市场和商品挂钩的货币。
不过，经济稳定的迹象，再加上股市回暖和波动减弱，安抚了投资者的神经。
这令美元丧失了部分风险规避支撑，从而引发担忧，正如投资者慌乱从风险仓位中出逃时美元受益一样，同理，当他们搜寻收益时，美元则蒙受损失。自今年3月以来，美元对欧元下跌近10%，对英镑下降8.8%，对日元则损失了3%。
在同一阶段，新兴市场和商品挂钩货币对美元的回升幅度甚至更大，澳元上升了20%，巴西里亚尔强势上涨15%，南非兰特上涨了16%。
JP摩根(JPMorgan)的约翰·诺曼德(John Normand)相信，全球经济已转危为安。“由于美国经济增长将伴随着低利率、高通胀的预期，再加上融资风险高于大多数其它经济体的，美元将成为主要的牺牲品，”他说。
他补充道，投资者不断重复着一个常见的错误：低估转折关头的增长。
“鉴于雷曼破产后有一大笔资金以现金形式积累，并且在今春的股市回升后尚未进行配置，任何意外上涨都将导致美元的新一波下行趋势，”诺曼德先生表示。JP摩根认为，这笔累积资金的金额约为7000亿美元。
“即便经济复苏证实力度温和，这些现金水平看来也非同寻常，”诺曼德先生说。“即使经过过去两个月的调整之后，从再分配角度来说，风险市场的升值和美元下行似乎仍相当合理。”
越来越多的迹象显示，股票和美元之间紧密的相关性正在分解。
近几个月来，风险规避型投资者从下跌的股市出逃时，美元受益，但美元风险偏好较高、股市回升之时仍旧下跌。
本周，在美联储(Fed)向下修订增长预期并提高了失业率预测目标后，美元和股市双双下跌。
“从风险规避型竞价的角度看，美国股市低迷，没能令美元受益，这一事实显示，看跌美元的观点已更加确立无疑，”东方汇理银行(Calyon)的米图·科特查(Mitul Kotecha)说。
他预期，投资者将关注美元的其它利空消息，包括对美国财政状况和美联储定量放松计划作用的担忧。
分析人士称，由于评级机构标准普尔(S&P)昨日降低了对英国主权债券前景的评级，对美国财政状况的担忧似乎只可能加剧。
荷兰国际集团资本市场部门(ING Capital)的克里斯·特纳(Chris Turner)称，美国国债对国内生产总值之比较英国更糟糕——63%对44%，令美国陷入财政危机，而多数国际组织，包括国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界经济合作与开发组织(OECD)，都预期美国的这一比例将先于英国达到100%。
“市场追问，美国前景评级的改变是否会在短期内发生——这对美元将是个极坏的消息，这样问是有道理的，”特纳先生表示。
三菱东京UFJ银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ)的德里克·赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)称，美国货币政策对通胀预期的影响将主导美元的表现。
他表示，假如美联储为了推动国内经济，在其定量放松计划中加强资产购买规模，则长期通胀预期在未来几个月可能爬升。
“危险很有可能是，金融市场参与者会推测，美国政策制定者在策划让美元走弱，把它作为整个对抗通缩计划的一部分，”他说。
这将在世界主要外汇储备持有国间敲响警钟，他们持有的大多数外汇储备是美元。
作为世界最大的外汇储备国，中国已不断重申对美元价值的担忧，并与世界第三大外汇持有国俄罗斯一起，敦促解除美元作为国际储备货币的地位。
除非从近乎十分长远的角度看，这一行为是不可想象的。但这个高度敏感的话题可能削弱美元地位，本周的新闻报道引起的关注就见证了这一点。报道称，巴西和中国的贸易不久可能以里亚尔和人民币计价。
中国银监会的一位官员本周表示，到2020年，人民币可能成为更大的储备货币，占全球储备的3%。
“这个过程会相当缓慢，尤其是考虑到人民币不能完全兑换，”标准银行(Standard Bank)的史蒂夫·巴罗(Steve Barrow)说。
“由于随着人民币的全球地位加强，美元的损失似乎可能是最大的，这个问题很显然会逐渐蚕食美元的地位。”
译者/红岭
未经英国《金融时报》书面许可，对于英国《金融时报》拥有版权和/或其他知识产权的任何内容，任何人不得复制、转载、摘编或在非FT中文网（或：英国《金融时报》中文网）所属的服务器上做镜像或以其他任何方式进行使用。已经英国《金融时报》授权使用作品的，应在授权范围内使用。