Chinese bank lending

Lex
Enough already. Having presided over a mammoth $1,100bn of new loans in the first half of the year, Beijing is calling time on Chinese credit growth. Pressure on banks to exercise more parsimony and caution has escalated in recent weeks. Chinese officials have sounded increasingly antsy about asset bubbles and unproductive loans. Under official direction, new Chinese lending last month could have dropped below $73bn, according to early reports, . That is half the previous monthly run rate, although lending is usually front-loaded into the first half.
These are the problems that US or European central bankers wish for. But it also means Beijing needs to address the thorny issue of how to exit from extra-loose monetary policies first. Chinese economic growth is widely expected to reach 8 per cent this year, but exports remain weak. The combination of easy money and the fiscal stimulus has won over investors – the Shanghai Composite Index is up 80 per cent this year – and pushed fixed asset investment higher. But not all credit is being usefully deployed. Some corporate borrowers have turned stock speculators; others are inflating property bubbles. Even loans going to manufacturers, while apparently useful, have only added to overcapacity.
An edict to rein in lending is the first tool at China's disposal. Clamping down on corrupt real estate lenders is another way to make sure credit ends up where it is supposed to. If that, combined with guidelines on just what constitutes acceptable lending, fails to do the trick, other measures may be needed. These could include increasing bank reserve requirements. Still, acting on worries about asset bubbles and pressures on the currency is one thing. A more conventional tightening of Chinese monetary policy remains too bold, for now.
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